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Analysis of crypto, equities and macro. Most newsletters are published here as articles.

Nov 14, 2026

Value trap or opportunity? How I read a 52-week low

There is no shortage of stocks that have fallen 30, 40 or 50%. The hard part is finding the few where the business hasn't followed the share price down. Lululemon looks cheap but the business is weakening, while On Holding looked broken but the business kept growing. Here is how I check for the difference.
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Nov 6, 2026

$FLIP: the business tripled while the price fell 72%

Chainflip's swap volume is up 3X since January 2025, while the token lost 72%. Every fee buys and burns $FLIP. In my opinion the price has overcorrected. Still, five companies control the vaults, the burn is scheduled to end, and insiders can sell into any rally. So it's on my watchlist, not in my portfolio.
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Oct 7, 2026

Bitcoin shouldn't be going up

Money got more expensive for two months, and Bitcoin went up with it. That makes no sense, so I went looking for what's actually holding it up. There were three reasons, but only one of them looks durable to me.
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Oct 6, 2026

Golden boot of an investment?

The company has gotten better while the stock has gotten cheaper. The brand is On's main asset and its main risk, so I walk through what I'm watching to tell the difference between On choosing to sell fewer shoes and customers choosing not to buy them.
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Oct 6, 2026

Is HP actually cheap?

HP sells more than $50 billion worth of computers and printers a year and trades at around 10x forward earnings. Sounds cheap. But the part that's growing fastest is also the part making the least money. So is the discount deserved, or has it gone too far?
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Oct 6, 2026

The Coin I Just Entered (And Where $BTC Is Stuck)

$BTC has tried four times to break $87K to $90.5K and failed every time. Here's why that's fine by me, where I'd buy a dip, and the chart behind the coin I just entered with a small size.
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Sep 19, 2026

$10M revenue at $50M market cap?

The business is real, with almost all its GPUs rented out and real paying customers, but the $9.4M number isn't. And the bigger question is whether $IO captures any of it.
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