I’m a huge Ethereum bull and have a large portion of my personal portfolio carved out for it. With all the exciting stuff going on lately, I’ve been wondering: Can Ethereum reach $100K at some point in the future?
Yes, Ethereum can reach $100K. The reasons are digital bonds, tokenized real estate and securities, DEFI, NFT, institutional accumulation, and ETH 2.0. Moreover, technical indicators and data-science models predict Ethereum to reach $100,000 in 2025-2026.
Let’s get into how, when, and why Ethereum can reach $100K.
Please keep in mind: This is not a price prediction. It is a thought experiment.
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Is It Realistic That Ethereum Can Reach $100K?
To answer this question, we have to look at the fundamental potential of Ethereum as a programmable blockchain.
Does Ethereum have enough real-world use cases and value to reach a price of $100 000?
Yes, it absolutely does. Let’s go over a few of the most exciting things about Ethereum:
Applications (dApps) Can Be Built On Ethereum
Ethereum is what we call a “programmable blockchain, ” meaning developers and programmers can build stuff on it.
Stuff built on the Ethereum blockchain gains the benefits of blockchain technology like decentralization, security, and transparency.
Think about it like this:
Facebook and Amazon are like the applications that can be built on Ethereum, while Ethereum itself is like the internet.
Basically, Ethereum is “the internet 2.0”.
Governments Can Use Ethereum
It’s not only applications that could benefit from blockchain technology; Governments too.
We have already seen interest from some governments to write their laws on the Ethereum blockchain. Brazil is one of them.
Also, they have shown interest in storing information about who owns land/real estate on the Ethereum blockchain. Here’s a PDF about it from an Indian University.
There is an unlimited number of possible use cases for Ethereum by Governments, but these two are the two major cases we’ve already seen interest in.
Central Banks Already USe Ethereum
Just four days before writing this article, this happened:
The European Investment Bank (EIB), the investment bank owned by the EU Member States, has announced the issuance of the organization’s first-ever digital bond built on a public blockchain. The bond was issued using Ethereum and the issuance invoked $121 million two-year bonds placed with key market investors.Jamie Redman (Bitcoin.com)
That’s right; a bank just issued a fricking bond on the Ethereum blockchain!
I hope you understand just how crazy bullish that is for Ethereum as an investment.
The bond market is a $100 Trillion market. Suppose Ethereum becomes the go-to marketplace for bond issuing; that is a huge deal for a $100K Ethereum. Also, guess what blockchain will be picked for running “central bank digital currencies” on…
Tokenized Real Estate On Ethereum
Real estate is traditionally a “high ticket” investment, meaning that you need a lot of money to get started. Ethereum changes this:
Suppose you have a property that’s 10 000 square feet big worth $1 million. Suddenly you need some cash, but you don’t want to sell the property yet. What you can do is tokenize the property.
This is how: You create an ERC-20 token (token on the Ethereum blockchain) which derives its value from the property. For instance, you can create 10 000 tokens, one per square foot, and value them at $1 million / 10 000 = $100 each.
Then you can sell 2000 tokens to investors and keep 8000 of them for yourself.
This way, you keep 80% of the property while other investors own 20% of it.
If it’s a rental apartment, the rent can be paid in Ethereum directly into a smart contract which automatically pays out the appropriate percentage of the rental income to the owners.
“How far away is this?”
It’s already here!
Last week, a friend of mine actually talked to a Norwegian billionaire real estate guy looking to tokenize some of his properties.
Also, check out this article about Reinno, a company that just launched its platform with over 200 million dollars worth of real estate tokenized.
These use cases are enough to send Ethereum to $100K and beyond, in my opinion. If we see adoption continue to accelerate, it’s only a matter of time…
Now, let’s take a more technical approach and try to figure out when we can expect a $100K Ethereum to materialize, according to historical data and models:
Historical Performance Of Ethereum
The cryptocurrency market behaves cyclically, meaning that it’s somewhat predictable in the long-term timeframe.
The market is cyclical because Bitcoin, which the altcoin market follows, is cyclical by design.
Think about it like this:
Bitcoin has cycles of 4 years due to the Bitcoin halving (read about the Bitcoin halving’s effect on price here). Also, when Bitcoin moves, the market usually follows it.
This leads to a cyclical behavior of the entire cryptocurrency market.
The chart below shows how Bitcoins cycles work:
Notice how the market is relatively calm a year or two before the halving, but after each halving, the price increases exponentially?
This is key to understand for all crypto investors, even if you invest exclusively in altcoins.
The reason is that altcoins, including Ethereum, are bound to the Bitcoin cycles.
Take a look at the Ethereum price chart, with the halving of Bitcoin pointed out:
We see the same pattern with Ethereum – an exponential increase in price after Bitcoin halvings.
This has caused a lot of people to conclude with this:
Ethereum will eventually reach $100 000 after Bitcoin has had enough halvings.
However, this seems a bit thin.
I want to get deep into this topic and really try to figure it out. This is why we’re going to do things differently than most people:
We need to figure out what Bitcoin will do and how much Ethereum will be worth, priced in Bitcoin.
The Relationship Between Ethereum And Bitcoin
Bitcoin is the king of Cryptocurrencies, and Ethereum is the prince. Their relationship is interesting and somewhat predictable.
Let me show you:
The chart above shows you the relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin: It shows you how much Bitcoin you can get with one Ethereum.
If this chart goes up, it means that Ethereum is outperforming Bitcoin. If the chart goes down, it means that Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum.
This chart indicates two things:
1) Ethereum outperforms Bitcoin in crypto bull markets and underperforms it in bear markets: The chart went up in 2016-2017 (bull market), down in 2018-2019 (bear market), and up again in 2020-2021 (bull market).
2) The volatility of the relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum is decreasing: The trend channels are tightening in
If we assume that these two trends continue, the relationship between Ethereum and Bitcoin will eventually converge to a specific point.
Maybe something like this:
Please keep in mind; this is pure speculation based on a small data sample.
However, it’s not unthinkable that something like this will happen because:
1) As Bitcoin and Ethereum grow, both will experience decreased volatility – It takes more buying/selling pressure to move the price of something big than something small.
2) We already know that Ethereum follows Bitcoins cycles and that they increase/decrease roughly simultaneously.
3) Profits generated by trading Bitcoin often trickle into Ethereum and vice versa. This means that if Bitcoin greatly outperforms Ethereum for a few months, a large portion of the gains will be put into Ethereum, making Ethereum catch up with the king. This balances the scales and readjusts the relationship between Bitcoin and Ethereum every time it “gets out of line”.
Like on the charts above, let’s assume that the relationship converges to 0.05 Bitcoin per Ethereum. This ratio basically means that Ethereum is worth 5% of what Bitcoin is worth.
We can use this to calculate what Bitcoin has to be worth for Ethereum to reach $100K:
If Ethereum is worth 5% of one Bitcoin, and one Ethereum is worth $100K, we can calculate the needed Bitcoin price like this:
Bitcoin price = $100 000 / 0.05 = $2 000 000
In other words:
For Ethereum to reach $100K, we need to see a Bitcoin price of $2 000 000.
This means that we can predict when Ethereum reaches $100K by predicting when Bitcoin will reach $2 million:
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When Will Ethereum Reach $100K?
Instead of using my crystal ball, I’ll use data science models and historical data to estimate when Bitcoin reaches $2 million to get our Ethereum prediction.
The first model up, is The Fair Value S2F Model:
This model shows the “fair value” of Bitcoin. The price Bitcoin “should” be at in a rational market.
The green dashed line is the fair value. Above the red line is “overbought/expensive territory, below the white line is “oversold/cheap territory.
The red line hits $2 million in 2026:
This model predicts Bitcoin to reach $2 000 000 in 2025-2026. This fits well with the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, as the peaks usually come 1.5 – 2 years after each halving, and the next halving is in 2024.
In other words:
According to The Fair Value S2F Model, Ethereum might hit $100K in 2025-2026 if it maintains its 0.05 ratio to Bitcoin.
You can read more about this model here. Let’s look at another model.
Next up is The Stock to Flow Model by Plan B:
This model predicts a price of $1 million in 2025-2026. However, we have overshot all previous predictions. For example, In 2017, we 4x’ed the model’s prediction – reaching $20K when $5K was predicted.
It is not unreasonable to assume that we’ll overshoot the next prediction as well. If we manage to 2x the predicted price, we will reach $2 million.
In other words:
If history repeats itself, and we overshoot the target of the stock to flow model by at least 2x, and Ethereum holds a 0.05 ratio to Bitcoin, we will see an Ethereum price of $100K in 2025-2026.
What A $100K Ethereum Would Look Like
Let’s compare the market capitalization of Ethereum at $100 000 with other stuff, just to get an idea of what a $100K Ethereum would look like:
The market capitalization of Ethereum after reaching a price of $100K would be:
Market cap = price * supply = $100 000 * 115 000 000 = $11 500 000 000 000 (11.5 Trillion USD)
The market cap of Ethereum at $100 000 would be 11.5 trillion U.S. Dollars.
Let’s put that into perspective:
Above, you see a comparison of the market cap Ethereum at $100K and a few other assets. As you can see, it would be bigger than Gold is today and over half of the current size of The U. S. Dollar.
And yeah, that’s moon you see in the background, cuz eth be mooning baby!
Jokes aside, the takeaway from this calculation is this:
A $100K Ethereum is within the boundaries of what’s possible. If the market cap reached $160 Trillion, I would be more skeptical, but a $11.5 trillion market cap is definitely on the cards for the prince of crypto.
Conclusion: Yes, Ethereum Can Reach $100K
Ethereum can reach $100K because of tokenized real estate, digital bonds, and Government use of the Ethereum blockchain. All the use cases are taking off, and it’s only a matter of time before Ethereum reaches six figures.
If the Ethereum/Bitcoin balance converges to a 0.05 ratio, we might expect a $100K Ethereum in 2025-2026, because of the cyclical nature of Bitcoin, according to The Fair Value S2F Model and the Stock to Flow model by Plan B.
A $100 000 Ethereum would be larger than Gold is today and more than half of the current market cap of the U.S. Dollar. This is well within the range of what’s realistic for the market capitalization of Ethereum in the long run.
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