Holo is a really interesting, and radically different cryptocurrency project, with the potential to revolutionize the way we build distributed ledger systems. But is this enough? Can Holo reach $1 in the future?
Holo can reach $1 if the price surges with 6500% from its current price. To do this, the mainnet needs to get launched, and Holo needs to attract more developer and users. This is definitely doable, but don’t expect it to happen in 2021.
However, the road to $1 is long, and will certainly not be straight. We will see ups and downs on our way to the dollar mark.
Important: When the mainnet launches, the HOT token will no longer be used, but swapped with Holofuel. When we talk about Holo reaching $1 in this article, it’s the equivalent of HOT or Holofuel reaching $1.
Let’s get into the details:
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Is a $1 Holo Realistic?
For Holo to reach $1 from its current price of $0.0153 it has to increase roughly 6500%.
Is a surge like that realistic? Has it ever happened before?
Yes, many times. Actually, Holo itself recently managed to pull a surge like this off.
Holo just have to to repread what it did in Q1 of 2021 (pluss a little bit) to reach $1:
However, the better question to ask is:
How much accumulated increase does Holo have to experience in 2021, not just from the current price, but from the start of 2021?
We get the answer to this question by adding together the two measured moves from above:
From the chart above, we see that a surge of over 150 000% is needed, measured from the beginning of 2021, for Holo to reach $1.
That’s looking a lot less realistic than the 6500% increase.
The last chart, showing that a 150 000% increase in 2021 is more accurate, and should be what you base your investing decisions on rather than the one showing a 6500% increase.
The one with 6500% does not take into consideration the recent price movements. This is bad, because a 5000%+ increase in the recent-past often restrict the potential of a future surge.
However, it’s not impossible to surge 150 000%. We have seen coins like AAVE do this in the past. After all, this is the cryptocurrency market… Anything can happen.
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How can Holo Reach $1?
The technology behind this project really peaked my interest. They try to change the way we think about blockchains and distributed ledgers all together.
Think Outside The Blocks!Holochain.org
Instead of creating a programmable blockchain, similar to Algorand or Ethereum, they have created a new way to run decentralized applications:
They have created a Holochain, which is a platform you can build stuff on, in a decentralized, scalable and “agent-centric” way.
The main difference between Holochain and blockchain is that blockchains need all nodes (miners) to keep a complete and synchronized copy of the blockchain at all times, leading to scaling problems. On the other hand, The Holochain consist of lots of smaller networks, feeding into a larger distributed ledger, with no need for “global consensus” on every single transaction.
This way of structuring the distributed ledger system makes it infinitely scalable, and more decentralized. Also, the fact that all agents run their own little corner of the network makes it so that they themselves control the data and information shared, which is good for privacy and security.
However, they have not yet released the mainnet, in which their project will really blossom. I expect a rapid increase in price when they do.
The mainnet would give developer the chance to build amazing stuff faster and more easily, on a platform which is better than traditional blockchains.
With this in mind, there are two things Holo needs to accomplish to reach $1:
1) They need to get their mainnet launched
2) They need to accelerate adoption and attract developers and users
Don’t get me wrong, they do have some stuff built on their platform already, but it’s not enough to spike the price up to $1 dollar yet.
What they need is mass adoption, which is achieved by focusing on marketing and business stuff too, not exclusively developing the tech.
In my analysis of Holo as an investment in 2021, that’s one of the few drawbacks I could find: The team consist exclusively of tech-people.
Where are the business/marketing focused people??
I would love to see some efforts to attract more attention and developer to their platform. I’m convinced this would accelerate the adoption of Holochain, and increase the price of HOT (the token you buy when investing in Holo).
However, I do understand that they want to finish their product before advertising it. I guess we’ll have to wait until the mainnet launches before we see a significant marketing effort from Holo.
What Would Happen if Holo Reached $1?
If Holo reached $1, the market capitalization would explode.
The way to measure the value of a specific token of cryptocurrency project, is to multiply the price per token with the number of circulating tokens:
Market Cap = Price per token * Circulating Supply
If Holo reaches $1 per token, the market cap (total value) would therefore be:
Market Cap = $1 * 170 000 000 000 = $170 000 000 000 (170 billion USD)
In othrer words:
If Holo reaches a price of $1, the market capitalization would reach 170 billion USD. That’s about 8% of the total cryptocurrency market as of April 2021.
To give you an idea of just how big this is, I’ve compared it to the current market cap of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Binance Coin:
Conclusion: Yes, But Not In 2021
Holo will not reach $1 in 2021, but it is possible in a few years. For Holo to reach $1 this year, the total price increase of 2021 has to be over 150 000%, which is unrealistic to expect, but not impossible.
It all depends on the release date of their mainnet, and how well they attract developers and users of their holochain.
However, I do think Holo is a good investment in 2021, just not a “1500x ” investment.
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