Chiliz is the leading fan token project. Macro expert Raul Pall has explicitly stated his excitement about this cryptocurrency. In this article, I'll explore the possibility of Chiliz reaching one hundred dollars.
Here's the short answer:
My scenario allowed Chiliz (CHZ) to reach $100 by 2040 if the crypto market grew enough. At that price, CHZ would have a market cap of $530 billion.
In the rest of the article, I'll outline why I think a $100 CHZ is within the realm of possibilities.
I'll let you know that I personally own Chiliz and that I'm long-term bullish on this project.
Is It Realistic For Chiliz To Reach $100?
To answer this, I'll calculate the market capitalization of a theoretical $100 CHZ and compare it to a theoretical Bitcoin at $100K and Ethereum at $10K.
I deem a $100 CHZ unrealistic, at least for the next 3-6 years, if the market cap is larger than Bitcoin or Ethereum at $100K and $10K.
Below is the comparison I used to test whether a theoretical $100 CHZ fit within the broader market scenario:
data source: CoinGecko
For Chiliz to reach $100 its market cap needs to reach $530 billion. That's a lot, but not even half of what Ethereum would have at $10K.
Here's the math: Market cap = price per coin * circulating supply
My scenario assumed Ethereum could reach $100K and Bitcoin could reach $1 million, which would give Chiliz more room to grow in later crypto cycles.
When Can Chiliz Reach $100?
To figure this out, I'll look at the current market share Chiliz has captured, and calculate how large the total cryptocurrency market needs to be for CHZ to reach a market cap of $530 billion with the given market share. It's generally less speculative to predict the market than a specific coin, so this way we're probably reaching a more accurate estimation.
The current market share of Chiliz is 0.147% of the total crypto market. In 2021, it reached a high of 0.2%. I believe that a market share of 0.8% is realistic for Chiliz to reach in the next crypto cycle, or the one after that. It's the same market share as Dogecoin currently has.
Here you see the development of the market share for Chiliz since 2019:
(data from Tradingview)
Let's use the two different market shares to calculate how large the total crypto market needs to be for Chiliz to reach $100:
Current Chiliz Market Share of 0.147%:
For Chiliz to reach $100 with a market share of 0.147%, the crypto market needs to grow to $360 Trillion. Here's the math:
$530,000,000,000 / 0.00147 = 360 Trillion
This is not realistic. Therefore, Chiliz will never reach $100 with its current market share.
Let's run the numbers with our assumed 0.8% market share:
Assuming Chiliz Market Share reaches 0.8%:
For Chiliz to reach $100 with a market share of 0.8%, the crypto market needs to grow to $66.25 trillion. Here's the math:
$530,000,000,000 / 0.008 = 66.25 Trillion
This is within the realm of possibilities, but not in this decade. Therefore, Chiliz might reach $100 within 2040.
The reason I thought it might happen in the following decade was my million-dollar Bitcoin scenario. With Bitcoin dominance below 35%, the total crypto market could reach the range required for a $100 Chiliz, given a 0.8% market share.
In other words:
Chiliz might reach $100 within the next decade if it manages to capture 0.8% of the cryptocurrency market.
Whether or not it can capture 0.8% of the crypto space is up for discussion, but it's far from impossible.
Conclusion: Yes, Chiliz Can Reach $100
My conclusion was that Chiliz could reach one hundred dollars in the following decade if the cryptocurrency market grew beyond $60 trillion and Chiliz captured close to one percent of it.