(Updated 16. September 2022)
Vechain is one of the most useful blockchain projects out there, with partnerships and real-world connections like few other cryptocurrencies. But can Vechain reach 100 dollars?
Here's the short answer:
Vechain can reach 100 dollars, but it is not likely. The market capitalization would reach almost 6.5 trillion USD, which is six times the total crypto market. For Vechain to reach $100, we need to see government-level partnerships and major institutional adoption.
Vechain does actually have several big partnerships, and more coming in the pipeline. Nevertheless, to reach $100 for a cryptocurrency with such a high circulating supply, is next to impossible.
As a crypto investor, this is essential to understand:
The way to valueate any cryptocurrency project, or company for that matter, is to look at the price per coin/share and multiply that number with the amount of coins/shares there is:
Value = number of coins/shares * price per coin/share
The number you get by calculating that, the "value" in this case, is called "market capitalization". This is the number to look at when comparing the value of different cryptocurrencies/companies.
It then logically follows that cryptocurrencies with a large supply (many existing coins) naturally get priced lower, as the value is spread out through more coins.
Vechain has a huge supply, logically leading to a lower priced coin.
The chart below compares Vechain's circulating supply with other currencies:
(Made in September of 2022, data from CoinGecko)
You see that the supply of Vechain is much higher than the other crypto projects. It's more than 10x the supply of Algorand, which itself has a huge supply.
This massive supply makes it hard for Vechain to reach 100 dollars. However, it is not impossible.
Let's get into the what and the how, to analyze it deeper:
What Would It Look Like If Vechain Reached 100 Dollars?
With its huge supply, Vechain reaching 100 dollars would sky-rocket its market capitalization (the total value of the cryptocurrency project).
Remember: Market cap = number of coins * price per coin.
Now, let's do the math and calculate what it would be like if Vechain reached 100 dollars, and compare it to other cryptocurrencies to see if it's within the realm of possibilities:
Market Cap = 64.5 Billion VET * $100/VET = $6.45 Trillion
In other words, if the price of Vechain reaches $100, the market capitalization will reach $6.45 trillion.
Let's compare that to what Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to reach at the peak of the next bull market.
My comparison assumed Bitcoin at $100,000 and Ethereum at $8,000.
The chart below compares the market caps at these prices:
In that comparison, I expected Vechain to remain below $100 in the next cycle because surpassing both Ethereum and Bitcoin—and growing to five times Bitcoin's size—looked unlikely.
However, it might happen in the future, when Bitcoin has grown larger, giving altcoins, like Vechain, more room to grow.
Vechain is fundamentally a strong project and has a lot going for it. If they manage to keep it up, they might make it to the hundred-dollar mark.
How Can Vechain Reach 100 Dollars?
Even though the road to 100 dollars is long, some things can send Vechain on the right path, helping it reach $100.
For the underlying fundamentals, see my historical Vechain analysis.
Vechain had potential use cases that could materially affect demand. Here is one example:
COVID-19 Test Results Verification: In a hospital in Cyprus, they use an app developed on the Vechain blockchain to verify the test results of Corona tests. (source: coindesk)
At the time, I saw this as meaningful evidence for Vechain's adoption case.
If this is done successfully (it has been so far), others might join them, and start using the Vechain blockchain to digitize and improve the healthcare industry in general.
This was one of the use cases that could support a broader adoption and demand cycle for Vechain.
Have Other Coins Surged Like That In The Past?
Vechain, being at $0.023 at the time of writing, has to increase by 435,000% to reach $100. Remember, that this does not have to be complete in one cycle, and can be spaced over two or more cycles.
For example, if Vechain surges by 10,000% in the next cycle, and then an additional 4,350% in the cycle after that, the total increase is equal to 435,000% due to compound interest.
Has something like that ever happened in the crypto markets before?
Well, yes. A lot of times, actually.
Let me show you what AAVE, the early DEFI coin, did in 2019-2021:
AAVE surged with over 200 000% in roughly two years... WHAT!?
At the measured endpoints, ten thousand dollars would have become roughly twenty million dollars, about 2,000 times the original investment.
Another crazy altcoin worth looking at is DOGE:
As you can see, DOGE has also surged over 70,000% from March 2020 to May 2021.
This measured move was about 700 times the starting value, meaning that a $10,000 investment at the exact low would have become roughly $7,000,000 at the exact high.
Related analysis: Can Dogecoin Reach $10?
Conclusion: Yes, Vechain Can Reach $100
All things considered, my scenario allowed Vechain to reach $100 over multiple cycles. Historical moves in AAVE and DOGE showed that gains of this scale had precedent, though I still regarded the outcome as unlikely.
If Vechain were priced at $100, its market cap would be almost 6.5 Trillion USD, which is six times as high as all cryptocurrencies combined at the time of writing.
For Vechain to have a chance at reaching those prices, we need to see some worldwide, big-time use cases involving major institutions and governments, as well as a huge rise in the general interest and size of the cryptocurrency market.