(Updated 16. September 2022)
Cardano is one of my “long-term holds” and an exciting crypto project. It has one of the strongest communities and the most thorough process of development I’ve ever seen. In this article, I’ll look into the possibility of Cardano reaching one thousand dollars in the future.
Here’s the short answer:
No, Cardano (ADA) can not reach $1000 as Cardano would be worth twice as much as the GDP of the USA, which is unrealistic. It could happen only if Ethereum fails and all crypto projects migrate over to Cardano, and if the U.S. Dollar is devalued so that $1000 is worth less.
When asking questions like this, we have to figure out what market capitalization Cardano would reach and compare it to familiar things like the market cap of Bitcoin, etc.
To calculate the market cap, we also have to consider the inflation rate of the circulating supply of ADA.
The current circulating supply of ADA is 32 Billion coins. The max supply is 45 Billion. I’ve written an article where I dive into the inflation and general tokenomics of ADA.
I’ll provide a table showing you the market cap of a theoretical $1000 Cardano (ADA) depending on what year it reaches it:
|Year||Inflation Rate||Circulating Supply (ADA)||Market Cap Of $1,000 ADA|
The fact that Cardano would need to have a $40 Trillion market capitalization to reach $1000 makes me skeptical.
I’ve written about XRP reaching $1000 as well, and it faces the same problem, only even worse.
The problem that keeps cryptocurrencies like ADA and XRP from reaching $1000 is the huge supply. Coins like Bitcoin and Ethereum which have lower supply, have no problems reaching high prices.
For example, I believe Bitcoin is going above $1,000,000 in the next 10-15 years. This is realistic, as the supply is capped at 21 million coins.
If you need some perspective on the $1000 ADA, check out this chart comparing it to other things:
This is not going to happen. It’s just not realistic, in my opinion. Do you really think Cardano can grow twice as big as the GDP of the richest economy on the planet?
Well, there is one way it can do it…
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The Only Way Cardano Can Reach $1,000:
If Cardano is going to reach $1000 and a market cap in the tens of trillions of U.S. Dollars, it needs to be “the only blockchain”. There is no room for Ethereum, Solana, Polkadot, or anyone else.
To reach $1000, Cardano needs to host all the digital bonds that banks and companies will issue on blockchains, and it needs to be the base for tokenized real estate, for DEFI, for the NFT market and Metaverses like Decentraland and The Sandbox.
If all these things go to Cardano, it might reach $1000.
The problem, however, is that basically everything is over at Ethereum’s blockchain…
Even worse, projects aren’t moving to Cardano when Ethereum is too slow or expensive; they move over to the Binance smart chain, Solana, Polkadot, Cosmos, or another blockchain, but not to Cardno.
Maybe sometime in the future, Cardano will be the “go-to” blockchain for Ethereum-movers. Some people think this is a realistic outcome, but I disagree.
I really don’t see Cardano becoming the number one blockchain. To be that, you either need (i) The network effect working to your advantage (like Ethereum has) or (ii) The best technology and marketing there is.
Cardano does not have the network effect working in its favor, and it does not have the best technology (even though Cardano fees are 37x lower than Ethereum).
Therefore, I believe that a $1000 Cardano will never happen.
The Other Way Carando Can Reach $1000 (But not really…)
Cardano (ADA) can also reach one thousand bucks if the dollar is devalued drastically over the next decade, which looks like a reasonable thing to assume.
If the dollar loses 80% of its value, which is possible in the next 10-15 years, and ADA keeps its value, reaching $1000 is like reaching $200 in today’s money.
So, if you think ADA can reach $200, it’s kind of like saying you believe it can reach $1000 given the expected devaluing of the U.S. Dollar.
I’ve got this beast of an article you can check out, which tells you everything you need to know about inflation and money printing.
Conclusion: No, Cardano Can Not Reach $1000
Cardano will never reach $1000 because it would require its market capitalization to outgrow the U.S GDP by a factor of two. Also, it would be 23.5 times larger than the market cap of Amazon. The only way this could happen is if Ethereum fails and everything migrates over the Cardano blockchain.
That being said, you never know. This is the crypto market, after all!
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