SUI is a layer-1 blockchain developed by Mysten Labs.
Mysten labs have roots in the failed "DIEM" project where Facebook tried to launch its own stablecoin.
In Japanese, SUI means "water", hence the logo.
SUI raised hundreds of millions in venture capital. Investors include Coinbase, Binance, Circle (the company behind USDC), and FTX.
SUI launched its main net in May 2023, so it's still relatively new.
Why is SUI Unique?
Parallel Transaction Processing: Unlike traditional blockchains that process transactions one after another, SUI can handle many transactions simultaneously. This parallel processing leads to higher throughput and faster confirmation times.
Object-Centric Data Model: SUI utilizes an object-based approach to manage data. Each asset or piece of information is treated as an individual object with its own properties. I found its implications interesting but too technical to explore here; this presentation explains the model.
Secure Programming with Move: Developers build on SUI using the Move programming language, which was initially created for the DIEM project. Move is more flexible than Solidity (Ethereum's programming language). It helps prevent common smart contract vulnerabilities, making applications more secure.
Scalable Architecture: SUI separates the consensus mechanism (DAG-based) from transaction execution for certain types of transactions. This separation allows the network to scale horizontally. Horizontal scaling just means adding more nodes/validators. The fact that more nodes = higher throughput is a BIG win for SUI, and NOT the case with for example Ethereum. On their website, they say that SUI can handle 297,000 transactions per second.
Low and Predictable Fees: Due to its efficient design, SUI offers lower and more stable transaction fees. This predictability makes it cost-effective for both developers and users.
Adoption
As investors, adoption is what we need to see before buying.
No matter how "cool" it is, if no one's using it, I'm not buying it.
There are three ways to easily compare the adoption of L1 blockchains:
Active wallets (how many people use the blockchain)
Number of applications (how many devs build on the blockchain)
Total Value Locked (how much DeFi is going on there)
Throughout this analysis, I'll compare SUI to Solana, as they are similar in aim and in direct competition.
Active Addresses/Wallets:
SUI is accelerating, but far from Solana levels:
SUI is closing in on 1 million daily active, roughly 1/4 of what Solana has.
For reference, SUI has a market cap of $6.2B, which is less than 1/10th of Solnana's $70B+ market cap.
I think SUI's valuation is fair, maybe even a bit undervalued given the accelerating trend.
Number of Applications:
According to Artemis, SUI has 114 projects as of October 2024.
Its most adopted applications seem to be in the "Social" category. RECRD, a social platform, has roughly 40% of the transactions in the last three months.
RECRD is a TikTok-like platform where almost all ad revenue goes to creators.
Solana has 164 applications, with the most adoption in the DeFi sector.
Notably, Raydium (the leading DEX on Solana) has almost 70% of the transactions.
There seems to be a difference in their focus: Solana on DeFi and SUI on social.
Maybe SUI is carving out its niche? Might be the way to go. I've yet to see a chain nailing the social niche. Maybe SUI will be "the one".
Total Value Locked:
TVL is a measure of how much value is locked up in DeFi applications.
Unsurprisingly, SOL outperforms SIU on this metric as SOL is more DeFi-focused:
Still, SUI has almost a billion dollars locked up, which is impressive.
And since SUI is priced 1/10th of SOL, this is promising.
Future Outlook and Thesis:
Before getting into speculative thought experiments on where SUI might be heading, I want to note some long-term risks:
Incomplete documentation on Tokenomics and allegations of insider trading of $400M by a so-called "infrastructure partner".
New technologies are risky. For example, their new programming language Move could prove vulnerable to attacks.
Competition from Aptos, Sei and Solana.
Given these risk factors, my approach was to realize some profits early.
For example, recovering the initial capital after a 2X would reduce the amount at risk, though the remaining position would still retain market risk.
My Thesis:
I think SUI might be this cycle's SOL.
Back in 2021, Solana was termed "The Ethereum Killer", and went from $1 to $250 (250x) in roughly one year:
Many are calling SUI "The Solana Killer", and expect it to do something similar.
Not a 250X move, but close in on Solanas valuations.
Back in 2021, Solana peaked at roughly 15% of Ethereum's value.
It's not hard to imagine SUI reaching 15% of Solanas value:
Assuming SUI reaches 15%, and that Solana peaks in the $375B - $750B range,
SUI might reach:
Low-end: $375 * 0.15 = $56.25B
High-end: $750 * 0.15 = $112.5B
The MC at the time of writing is $6B.
That's an increase of 9.25X - 18.5X in market cap.
But what about the price?
Well, the supply will increase a lot in the coming year, which is a drag on price:
The circulating supply seems to grow by about 0.82% of the TOTAL supply per month, which equals roughly 10% per year.
10% of the total supply is 1 billion SUI.
The current circulating supply is only 2.78 billion SUI, so the effective inflation rate is at 1B / 2.78B = 36%.
The circulating supply in late 2025 will be in the 3.8 Billion range.
Now we can divide the market cap by the supply to calculate the price.
If this is right, which is uncertain due to lack of documentation on the tokenomics, the price will reach:
Low-end: $56.25B / 3.8B = $14.8
High-end: $112.5B / 3.8B = $29.6
$14.8 for SUI seems realistic. And, if the stars align, SUI might reach almost $30.
Sounds crazy, I know. But this is crypto. Crazy things happen all the time.