Shiba Inu has been one of the most surprising and explosive crypto projects in the last few years. Some investors become millionaires, and some lose it all. The big question I see SHIB investors asking is if it can reach one dollar. That's what I'm looking into today.
Here's the short answer:
My conclusion was no: a $1 Shiba Inu Coin was not realistic even with token burns and new use cases. At the then-current supply, it would require a market cap of roughly $580 trillion, larger than any market in the comparison.
There's a reason why SHIB is struggling to break fractions of a cent; the huge supply. Here's some math for ya':
SHIB price = Market Cap / Circulating supply of SHIB.
The equation above logically forces the price to be low when the circulating supply is high.
Here's a chart showing how much larger the SHIB supply is than other cryptocurrency projects:
(data from CoinGecko)
The others are barely visible next to the huge supply of SHIB. Even Doge Coin, which itself has a huge supply, is absolutely dwarfed by Shiba Inu Coin.
Why Shiba Inu Coin Reaching $1 Is Unrealistic:
As mentioned above, the supply is what keeps SHIBA below $1. But why? Here's why:
By manipulating the equation in the introduction we can show that for Shiba Inu Coin to reach $1 with the current supply, it needs the following market cap:
Market Cap = SHIB price * supply = $1 * 589,375,180,400,042 = 589.3 Trillion USD.
For Shiba Inu Coin to reach $1, its market cap must reach almost $590 Trillion.
Here's a theoretical $1 SHIB market cap compared to some other things of high value:
(data sources: Statista, Companiesmarketcap, ICMAGroup, Investopedia)
Whether or not the estimations of the other markets are accurate or not is up for discussion, but what is not up for discussion is this:
At the then-current supply, a $1 SHIB would have had to outgrow the global derivatives market. I did not regard that as a realistic outcome for a single cryptocurrency.
This Needs To Happen For SHIB To Reach $1:
Shiba Inu burns coins with every transaction. The current burn rate is over five million SHIB per day. I've seen it as high as 280 million in a 24-hour window. But we're currently in a bear market, and the burn will likely pick up in the next bull market. In addition, every now and again we see huge burns.
Let's assume an average burn of 500 million coins daily, and figure out how long it'll take to get the supply low enough for a $1 SHIB to be realistic.
I made a table showing the necessary market cap at the expected supply after X decades of burning 500 million SHIB per day:
| Year | SHIB Circulating Supply | Required MC For $1 SHIB |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 587,175,000,000,000 | $5.87 Trillion |
| 2040 | 585,350,000,000,000 | $5.85 Trillion |
| 2050 | 583,525,000,000,000 | $5.84 Trillion |
| 2060 | 581,700,000,000,000 | $5.82 Trillion |
| 2070 | 579,875,000,000,000 | $5.80 Trillion |
| 2080 | 578,050,000,000,000 | $5.78 Trillion |
| 2090 | 576,225,000,000,000 | $5.76 Trillion |
| 2100 | 574,400,000,000,000 | $5.74 Trillion |
| 2200 | 556,150,000,000,000 | $5.56 Trillion |
| 2500 | 501,400,000,000,000 | $5.02 Trillion |
Burning 500 million coins daily sounds like a lot, but it's not nearly enough to chip down on the supply og SHIB. In fact, it would take over 1.6 thousand years for the supply to be cut in half.
Let's have some fun, and assume SHIB burns 5 Billion coins daily. Here are the new numbers:
| Year | SHIB Circulating Supply | Required MC For $1 SHIB |
|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 570,750,000,000,000 | $570.75 Trillion |
| 2040 | 552,500,000,000,000 | $552.50 Trillion |
| 2050 | 534,250,000,000,000 | $534.25 Trillion |
| 2060 | 516,000,000,000,000 | $516.00 Trillion |
| 2070 | 497,750,000,000,000 | $497.75 Trillion |
| 2080 | 479,500,000,000,000 | $479.50 Trillion |
| 2090 | 461,250,000,000,000 | $461.25 Trillion |
| 2100 | 443,000,000,000,000 | $443.00 Trillion |
| 2200 | 260,500,000,000,000 | $226.50 Trillion |
| 2300 | 78,000,000,000,000 | $78 Trillion |
In 2300, inflation has probably devalued the U.S. Dollar to a point where Shiba Inu might actually be worth $78 Trillion, which would put it at a $1 price given a burn of 5 billion coins per day for the next 280 years.
Oh, and please read the last paragraph with a bit of sarcasm...
Conclusion: No, SHIB Will Not Reach One Dollar
My conclusion was that a one-dollar Shiba Inu Coin was not realistic. The only scenario I could construct required extreme U.S.-dollar devaluation and daily burns of 5 billion SHIB for at least three hundred years.