(Updated 19. September 2022)
Decentraland was my first encounter with “the metaverse”, but Sandbox has hijacked much of my excitement about this crazy sector of the crypto market. In this article, I’m looking into the possibility of The Sandbox (SAND) reaching $1,000.
Here’s my conclusion:
Yes, The Sandbox can reach $1,000. This would put its market capitalization at $1.5 Trillion, which is possible because of the unprecedented potential of value-creation in the metaverse.
The main obstacle and reason why The Sandbox might struggle to reach 1,000 dollars is that it has a huge supply:
Currently, there are 1.5 billion tokens in circulation, which logically makes the price low. The max supply is 3 billion coins, which means that only half of the existing coins are in circulation at the moment. (source)
Remember: Price = Market Cap / Circulating Supply.
If the circulating supply is high, the price must be low. However, with a large enough market cap, The Sandbox will eventually reach $1000.
We can calculate the required market cap by manipulating the equation above like this:
Price * Circulating Supply = Market Cap
$1,,000 * 1,500,000,000 = $150,000,000,000 = 1.5 Trillion USD
In other words:
For The Sandbox to reach $1,000, the market cap has to reach $1,500,000,000,000 = 1.5 Trillion USD.
To give some perspective, the image below shows the market cap of a hypothetical Sandbox at $1,000 side by side with the expected peak Bitcoin and Ethereum prices for this crypto cycle:
(Bitcoin will hit $100K and Ethereum will hit $8K)
Since a $1,000 SAND would have a larger market cap than Ethereum at $10K, I don’t see it happening any time soon. However, in the crypto cycle after the next one, it’s highly realistic.
My best guestimation would be no sooner than the last half of this decade, and no later than the next decade.
I actually believe that Bitcoin will reach $1 million within 2037, which gives The Sandbox plenty of room to reach $1,000.
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The Adoption of The Sandbox Might Take it to $1,000:
Adoption is what drives the value of the SAND token. More adoption makes the coin go up in price, basically.
Thankfully, the adoption of The Sandbox is ramping up!
The Sandbox lags behind the leading decentralized metaverse “Decentraland” on users, but The Sandbox is growing FAST! They have a total of 500,000 users as of Q4 2021, while the number for Decentraland is estimated to be in the millions. (source_1, source_2)
As of March 2022, The Sandbox has 300,000 monthly active users. That’s the same as Decentraland – they’re catching up! (source)
Another interesting thing to compare is the volume of trading on Opensea (the leading NFT marketplace):
- The Sandbox has a lifetime volume of 159,900 ETH.
- Decentraland has a lifetime volume of 221,700ETH
In other words, Decentraland NFTs have been traded roughly 40% more than The Sandbox NFTs. However, we need to keep in mind that Decentraland has been up and running much longer than The Sandbox.
Also, the gap between them was MUCH bigger 12 months ago. The Sandbox might be smaller than Decentraland, but in terms of growth, I think it’s doing better.
Below you’ll find some of the partnerships The Sandbox has landed:
In addition, they have hosted some pretty cool events, like a concert with Deadmau5 and Snoop Dogg. (source)
In the future, we will need to see continued growth in monthly active users and partnerships with big and small artists, businesses, and other organizations. Only with huge growth in these areas can The Sandbox ever reach $1,000.
How Can The Sandbox Reach $1,000?
If The Sandbox manages to capture all its potential, the price would probably be in the multiple thousands of dollars range.
Think about it:
The Sandbox is recreating the world in a digital format. It creates value from real estate, art, music, games, gambling, collectibles, parties/festivals, in-game businesses, marketplaces, and the list goes on…
We’ve got respected macro experts like Raoul Pal saying that “the metaverse”, which The Sandbox is making, might double the global GDP.
His reasoning goes (basically) like this:
If we copy the world into a digital format, we could potentially create the same amount of value in the metaverse as in the “real” world, and as a consequence, double the global GDP
The current global GDP is estimated to be roughly 85 Trillion USD. To simplify this a lot, we can think of the global GDP as the world’s market cap.
If The Sandbox gets a 100% market share, which it won’t, and its market cap reaches $85 Trillion, the price could in theory reach: $85 Trillion / 3,000,000,000 SAND (max supply) = $28,333 per SAND
If The Sandbox gets a 20% market share of the metaverse and reaches a market cap of 0.2 * $85 Trillion = $17 Trillion the price would be:
$17 Trillion / 3,000,000,000 = $5,666
Even if it only captures 1% of it, the price would be:
$0.85 Trillion / 3,000,000,000 = $283
All those calculations were with the max supply. If we use the current circulating supply we can multiply the prices by 2x…
This gives us a SAND price of $566 with a 1% market share. Therefore, to reach $1,000 it just needs to double the market share to 2%.
In other words:
For The Sandbox to reach $1,000, it must reach a market cap equivalent to almost 2% of global GDP. This is not unrealistic as the nature of this project has the potential to double global GDP (or more). Therefore, The Sandbox can reach $1000.
Nevertheless, we see the beginnings of this value explosion already. There have been huge concerts, parties, art gallery openings, other social events, and much more. The virtual real estate part, institutional adoption, and other metaverse projects like Decentraland are also taking off as I write this.
Conclusion: Yes, The Sandbox Can Reach $1000
The Sandbox can definitely reach $1,000 if it manages to capture a part of the value creation of the metaverse.
If Raoul Pal is right, and the metaverse actually manages to double the global GDP, The Sandbox can blow through $1,000. It needs only capture two percent of the value in the SAND token, given today’s circulating supply of 1.5 billion coins. With the max supply, it needs roughly 4%.
Oh, and please remember:
This article is NOT a price prediction type of article. All of this is purely hypothetical and should be considered a thought experiment. I hope you found it interesting and illuminating.
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